Akira Kato, WIDE Project
The following picture illustrates the traffic exchanged at DIX-IE, one of the major Internet exchange points in Japan. The figures below are not automatically updated, however, they are updated once a month.
Following graph indicates the growth of aggregated inbound traffic at DIX-IE from its scratch.
DIX-IE has been operated as a distributed IX in dual star topology since May 2003. Former NSPIXP-2 switches (Foundry BigIron-8000 and -15000) are used for access switches in the main location. There are four remote locations are operational. They, including former NSPIXP-2 switches, are connected to a couple of Foundry Bigiron-15000's via 1Gbps through 10GE. All inter-switch links are in redundant configuration and 801.2w Rapid Spanning Tree is used where applicable. Link aggregation is made by "no protocol" or by 802.3ad.
Due to technical probolem, part of the traffic data have been lost during Dec 1 through Dec 2. The traffic drop started in late November 2003 was due to a fact that a couple of guys were arrested for illegally distribution of copyrighted materials through Winny -- one of the popular P2P applications.
The aggregated traffic plotted using logscale (y-axis only) is shown below. The greenline is a approxmation by
Traffic = b * exp(a * year), where a is 0.657Don't you think it fits very well to the observed peak aggregated inbound traffic at DIX-IE? Assuming the growth trend continues, the project peak traffic will reach 5Gbps in November 2001, 7Gbps in May 2002, 10Gbps in December 2002, and even 20Gbps in December 2003 (roughly to say it doubles in each year).
Following is a daily traffic graph for last 3months. When ISDN was the major method of Internet access in 2001 or before, there was a sharp traffic increase at 23:00 local time. This was a NTT's "tele-hodai" program in which the contracted subscribers get flat rate access between 23:00 and 8:00. However, the dominant method of the Internet access is now "broadband" technologies including Cable-TV, ADSL, or even FTTH. Still 23:00 is the traffic peak, the sharp traffic increase has not been seen in these days. There is a small traffic increase in between 12:30 and 13:00 so called "after-lunch click".
Are you interested in the weekly traffic pattern? It is illustrated as follows. When the Internet was academic-use only, there was very small traffic in a weekend day compared with one in a working day. No such characteristics has remained. The traffic in a weekend day almost equals to one in a working day.